On Fatalistic Reds Fans

Coming off the back of a series loss to Milwaukee, I have now discovered some fans in cyberspace that believe the Reds may not win their division or even make the playoffs. It’s just more negativity to heap on the pile that is already stuffed full of Baker-bashing and offense-bemoaning.

If the Reds had won today’s series finale, some of the same fans now writing the season off would now be talking about the roll the Reds have been on. Instead it seems people have latched on to one bad series rather than the generally solid play of the past few weeks. Every single team in baseball will lose series they “shouldn’t.” It happens. The Pirates have dropped series to middling or bad teams like the Dbacks, Rockies and Marlins since the All-Star break. The Cardinals dropped a set with the Cubs earlier this month. Should we cancel their postseason aspirations?

It would be difficult (not impossible) for the Reds to miss the playoffs. Consider:

  • The Nationals have 32 games left, and the best they have done over any 32 game period this year is 18-14. If they equaled that they’d finish 83-79, and the Reds would only need to go 10-21 to hold them off.
  • The Dbacks have 33 games left and their best 33 game run was 20-13. If they did that again they’d finish 86-76, and the Reds could go 13-18 without the Dbacks catching them.
  • The Reds have 31 games remaining…and the worst they have done over any 31 game period is 14-17.

So the Dbacks and Nationals would need to play winning baseball at a clip they have not done at all yet this year, all while the Reds lose at a pace they have not done yet this year. As for not having a shot at winning their division, are people looking at the same standings as I am? They tell me the Reds are behind two teams, but only by 2.5 games. That’s hardly an overwhelming gap with a month left.

One of the reasons some folks think the Reds are toast is because they’ve not been able to beat St. Louis. I can’t argue with that…but the upcoming games with St. Louis (seven of the next 10) haven’t been played yet. It seems unreasonable to take an attitude of “The Reds haven’t beat St. Louis, so they can’t and won’t.” They MIGHT get battered, sure. But maybe they won’t. Let the games play out. From some of the comments I’ve read you’d think the Reds were 17 games under .500, not over.

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